Tuesday, January 15, 2019

2019 Major Championship Predictions - First Time Winners Will Continue Their Incredible Run

We’re about 80 days away from the first major of the new season, and last year’s major champions and stories will be tough to beat.  Patrick Reed was amazing in his Masters win, outplaying Rory McIlroy while holding off frenzied charges from Jordan Spieth and Rickie Fowler.  Brooks Koepka won two of the next three majors, emerging victorious in the U.S. Open and PGA Championship (becoming just the 20th player in history to win multiple majors in the same season).  And Francesco Molinari breezed through the final round at the 147th Open Championship bogey free to become Champion Golfer of the Year. 

 

If any of these stories surprised you in 2018, prepare for even bigger surprises in 2019.  Like Brooks Koepka not winning any majors after winning two in the last three years.  Like Jordan, Rory, and Phil Mickelson not being able to close out career grand slam chances.  And maybe the biggest surprise, first-time major winners taking all four major championships in 2019 (making that a run of 14 first-timers in the last 17 majors). 

The Masters 
Tony Finau 
It’s hard to believe Tony Finau has won only one time on Tour (2016 Puerto Rico Open), but this oddity will change in a big way come April. Finau posted nine top-10s last season, including three in the first three majors, and his prodigious power will give him at least a one-club advantage hitting into Augusta National’s slippery greens. 

 

Finau has also become a clutch putter on Tour, and that’s perfect for Augusta’s hallowed grounds. He makes a lot of 10-footers you’re invariably going to have at Augusta, and despite not really knowing the course very well, Finau has the discipline to know what pins to go after and what pins to respect. Finau also relishes the prospect of competing here, as evidenced by him playing here last year on a dislocated ankle suffered in the par-3 contest. 

PGA Championship 
Jon Rahm 
Jon Rahm is entering his third year of his professional career and has already picked up two wins on the PGA Tour and another three on the European Tour.  If you throw in his four runner-up finishes, that’s an impressive resume for a player with only 65 career worldwide starts.  Rahm twice finished inside the top-5 in majors last season (The Masters and the PGA Championship), has been ranked as high as No. 2 in the World, and when his game is on few make it look easier than the Spaniard. 

 

If there’s a cause for concern for Rahm at this year’s PGA Championship, it’s that host Bethpage Black will have infamous fescue similar to what we saw at Erin Hills and Shinnecock last year.  Rahm threw an all-out temper tantrum on his way to missing the cut at Erin Hills, and then missed the cut again at Shinnecock.  However, Rahm’s pure power will give him an advantage at Bethpage (which won’t be set up like a U.S. Open), and hitting a 9-iron into Bethpage’s renovated greens instead of a 6-iron will make up for any bad angles he might see from missing the fairways.  Rahm can switch off if things aren’t going well, but at Bethpage this year his aggressive, no holding back personality could set PGA Championship scoring records. 

U.S. Open 
Bryson DeChambeau 
Bryson DeChambeau didn’t finish higher than 25th in any major last season, and he missed the cut at the PGA Championship.  But DeChambeau’s three wins last season came against elite fields, and his ball striking has developed to the point where it’s nothing short of spectacular at times.  Pebble Beach’s fairways will be tighter than we’ve seen the last few Opens, and DeChambeau’s ability to keep it in play makes him particularly well-suited to win. 

 

DeChambeau has shown that he won’t be intimidated by anyone down the stretch, and he has the grit it takes to grind out a hard fought win late on Sunday.  Pebble isn’t especially long, but it’s a classic, rugged, U.S. Open venue that will protect the identity of America’s national championship.  DeChambeau will keep it in play, grind out pars, and sprinkle in a few birdies as he adds his name to the luminous list of winners here on the Monterey Peninsula coastline. 

The Open Championship 

Rickie Fowler 
This will be the year Rickie Fowler finally sheds his “Best Player to Never Win a Major” label, as he wins The Open Championship by holding off Rory McIlroy in what will be the most entertaining major of the year.  Historically European players are more likely to win The Open than any of the other three majors.  Since World War II Europeans have won 18 Opens, compared with 13 Masters, five U.S. Opens, and five PGA Championships.  And this year The Open returns to Northern Ireland for the first time in 68 years (and only the second time in its 148 year history), so the Royal Portrush crowds will undoubtedly be pro-Rory. 

 

However, it’s Fowler who will write the most profound storyline.  A level of comfort with links courses is crucial to win here, and the now 30 year-old Rickie has repeatedly said and proven that he loves links golf and all its nuances and eccentricities.  Fowler excels at hitting shots back into the wind and controlling ball flight, and he’s proven to be particularly adept at playing in windy conditions.  Some of the biggest names in golf had their best years during their 30s.  Ben Hogan, Arnold Palmer, and Phil Mickelson all hit their stride in their 30s, and Fowler’s first decade of life on Tour has prepared him for exactly this moment.

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